Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Smart Phones and the Tipping Point

Although I have been a "loyal" user of DoCoMo phones for years, i just had to get the iPhone for work, along with a couple other execs. While it doesn't really do much for me in terms of voice calls, I have to say that the schedule/mail sync with exchange at work is seriously handy. Add the Bloomberg/WSJ/NY Times apps with SNS apps and it really is a tiny laptop.

Japan has the steepest (read: fast) upward slope on the innovation adoption curve between early adopters and early majority. This group is populated by a large percentage of young women, and as such I am seeing more and more young women with iPhones, playing music or getting onto SNS services. Sure, the percentage is still small compared to young women on pink phones looking at the mobile version of Mixi, but as with all trends in Japan, the tipping point can come along VERY fast.

How long did it take to go from 1% penetration to 10% for Crocs?
The speed is unbelievable-both creation and destruction-when it comes to trends.

So can DoCoMo, Softbank and KDDI come up with viable alternatives? DoCoMo sells the Blackberry, but only the clunky one-that thing is too ugly to be anything but company issue-

Watch this space...

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